Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Helene
08L.Helene NHC AoI: E of Cape Verde Islands It seems we aren't doing "areas of interests" anymore on these talk pages. ( So go ahead and delete this if you need to) .... but if there is a "Tropical Cyclone Possible" spot in the Cape Verde Islands on the NHC's Mariner's 1-2-3 Dangers pagehttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/145328.shtml?basin, and no Invest on the Navy NRL page, What does that make it? SargeAbernathy 17:18, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :The NHC also mentioned this system in the TWO. It is a tropical wave that is currently emerging the coast of Africa. They say development is possible over the next couple of days. Given the tropical cyclone possible spot, this should probably stay. Hurricanehink (talk) 17:24, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :That's actually a good question, because this possibility was never brought up during the big debate over the AoI pages. I'm going to retitle this section, since the NHC considers it an area of interest, and the NHC is the official RSMC for this region. At any rate, it does look impressive, and it wouldn't surprise me if this were declared an invest as soon as it's completely over water. --'Coredesat' talk. o_O 17:25, 11 September 2006 (UTC) ::Is it normal for the NHC to say something before the NRL? I always saw the two going hand-in-hand with information. I mean, I have no doubt that the NRL will catch up soon. I just didn't know how the two interacted with each other. SargeAbernathy 17:28, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :::This has happened a few times before, so it's just a little uncommon. --'Coredesat' talk. o_O 17:34, 11 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Since it is NHC that defines the number of the system inside the ATCF software, it is NHC's call. NRL just follows their lead. Thegreatdr 18:05, 11 September 2006 (UTC) From the 2:05 PM TWD: A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N14W IN SOUTHERN SENEGAL IN THE PART OF THE COUNTRY BETWEEN GAMBIA AND GUINEA-BISSAU. IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE COLDER CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE SCENARIO WAS MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE 4 TO 5 HOURS AGO. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...BUT PRECIPITATION PROBABLY REMAINS STILL...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 12W AND 21W. Still over land as of right now, which is probably why there isn't an invest up on NRL yet. --'Coredesat' talk. o_O 18:30, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :It needs to be declared 94L. I have a really bad feeling about this one... CrazyC83 18:54, 11 September 2006 (UTC) On Florence's and Gordon's Mariners' 1-2-3 Rule says the area has a possibility to become a tropical cyclone in 36 hours. tdwuhs :I am not to worried about that wave. Even if it's going to develop it will probably recurve out to sea. -- WmE 19:26, 11 September 2006 (UTC) ::Unless it takes a while to develop and develops in the Carribean. [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 20:19, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :::True. If it doesn't develop but maintains its identity then it would have a chance to form just about anywhere along the major "hurricane corridor." bob rulz 21:41, 11 September 2006 (UTC) ::::I doubt it's going into the Caribbean but without any model forecasts, I can't be sure and anything on that subject is just speculation but this storm has impressed me and NHC. The visible shows an eye-like feature http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg and the center appears to have moved off the coast. But whether it looks impressive or like a piece of crap, I always get concerned when NHC says "Possible tropical cyclone within 36 hrs" on a wave that hasn't even left the coast of Africa yet. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 21:47, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :::::If it doesn't develop, chances are it would eventually make it to the Caribbean. If it does develop right there next to the African coast, climatology shows that it would recurve. That doesn't mean it would, but it would have a high likelihood to. If it doesn't develop, the problem would be the wave maintaining its identity across the ocean...if it does, likelihood is is that it would reach highly favorable conditions at some point along its path, but if it doesn't form, then there's no way it can recurve. I've never heard of a tropical wave recurving (although they can dissipate). bob rulz 22:09, 11 September 2006 (UTC) Gone from the danger graphic, but still on the TWO as possible development next 48 hours.-Runningonbrains 22:21, 11 September 2006 (UTC) :It's back on the danger graphic. (My map is indeed valid for 2100 UTC.) —BazookaJoe 22:54, 11 September 2006 (UTC) Could it be declared TD8 (or Helene) without getting called an Invest? It looks like it may have a closed circulation trying to form already. And it is HUGE! I give it an 80% chance of development. CrazyC83 23:48, 11 September 2006 (UTC) Still on the danger graphic, 0300 UTC. TWO: "THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC." It can't be a technical restriction for not putting up 94L on the NRL site, can it? I doubt it. —BazookaJoe 03:56, 12 September 2006 (UTC) 94L.INVEST Finally listed on NRL. --Patteroast 10:06, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :NHC says possible TD within the next day or so. Hurricanehink (talk) 12:59, 12 September 2006 (UTC) ::NRL listed it as 08L.NONAME already, it already looks like a depression. --IrfanFaiz 13:08, 12 September 2006 (UTC) 08L.NONAME And already 08L on the NRL. —AySz88 ^-^ 13:09, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :Wow, that was fast. SHIPS brings this right to a category 3 hurricane. Furthermore, now we've three active systems. -- WmE 13:20, 12 September 2006 (UTC) ::Not "officially" on NHC's site yet, but on one of their Guidance outputs... ::NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (AL082006) ON 20060912 1200 UTC ::– Chacor 13:23, 12 September 2006 (UTC) That was fast, barely off the coast. Isn't the 12th the peak of the season? --Holderca1 14:25, 12 September 2006 (UTC) And for those that like models. early, intensity. Others aren't up yet. SHIPS brings it to a major hurricane in 120 hrs. --Holderca1 14:27, 12 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Depression Eight NHC confirmed. We now have three active systems (for the next few hours at least). -Runningonbrains 14:34, 12 September 2006 (UTC) – Chacor 14:37, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :This one I feel could become huge. Stay tuned... CrazyC83 15:05, 12 September 2006 (UTC) ::Of course it will become huge! We're talking about what will become Hurricane Helene! It would be lovely to watch her blossom into a powerful category 5. But her track shows her possibly becomming another Florence. -24.92.41.95 15:59, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :::"Beautiful" ?! A death bringing destruction machine? "Beautiful" "Blossom" ? doktorb words 16:06, 12 September 2006 (UTC) ::::They're only death-bringing if people get in the way. A fish spinner Cat 5 is a beautiful thing to watch. Plus they do have a natural purpose and importance: heat transfer. —BazookaJoe 19:11, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :::::I'll admit, that's one of the reasons I liked Ioke so much - not since I've gotten interested in hurricanes have I had a Cat 5 fishspinner (Except for a few evacuated personnel) to gawk at. --Golbez 20:03, 12 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::The last Cat 5 fish-spinner in the Atlantic was 48 years ago. CrazyC83 21:25, 12 September 2006 (UTC) It does remind me of the beginnings of another H-storm... CrazyC83 16:34, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :Don't say that. :( --Golbez 20:03, 12 September 2006 (UTC) Is it me or does the NRL pic of TD8 look like it has an eye? tdwuhs TD8 is predicted to recurve out to sea like its brethren, however, I think it is still too early to be sure of that. The great kawa 18:58, 12 September 2006 (UTC) Curve, baby, curve. No Caribbean cruises for you. —BazookaJoe 19:11, 12 September 2006 (UTC) :It's forecast to, but even the Caribbean is not always friendly to tropical visitors. Look at Earl in '04, it hit a wall the minute it reached the Caribbean. That is one of many examples. Crazy, it's WAY too early to be making comparisons to Hugo or anybody else famous (or infamous). This thing could be another fish-spinner. It is about time that '06 had a legitimate beast, but I'd just as soon it be beastly away from land. Bottom line is, I'm not going to be scared until this thing gives me a reason to be scared. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 23:44, 12 September 2006 (UTC) This is quite similar to the early days of Florence right now. However, TD8/Helene is way, way farther east and has so much time to develop (or dissipate). CrazyC83 17:22, 13 September 2006 (UTC) ::5 PM. No change to 8.Mitchazenia 20:43, 13 September 2006 (UTC) :::Marvelous news! If it can stay a TD for the next 48 hours or so we'll have a party in the caribbean by the weekend! GO HELENE!!! GO!!! -24.92.41.95 20:54, 13 September 2006 (UTC) It's too early to jump to any conclusions, but the track starts bending back to the west after about 3 days. bob rulz 21:16, 13 September 2006 (UTC) :Umm, I hate to be off color, but some of these anon users need to be drug tested a little more often. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 00:12, 14 September 2006 (UTC) 35kt according to NRL... looks like it's Tropical Storm Helene for the next advisory. Pobbie Rarr 01:34, 14 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Storm Eight TS8 has been called at 35kt by the models, intensity guidance, and NRL. -- RattleMan 02:23, 14 September 2006 (UTC) :Since I have felt that it has been a TS for at least 24 hours (Dvorak estimates, satellite and Quikscat), that is what I have been calling it. Better to just use the number than to jump the gun on the name, regardless of my own estimates. CrazyC83 02:48, 14 September 2006 (UTC) Tropical Storm Helene Helene per the NHC! -- RattleMan 02:53, 14 September 2006 (UTC) :Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Dig it out man:-) — § Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody (T + U + + C) - (Remembering 9/11) 03:31, 14 September 2006 (UTC) ::Uhh.........ok?..... [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 19:55, 14 September 2006 (UTC) Helene is finally consolodating her convection near the center. Should begin strengthening faster now. -Runningonbrains 07:55, 15 September 2006 (UTC) :Yeah, I agree. Hurricane later today perhaps. When I get to it, the sandbox article will be User:CrazyC83/Helene06. CrazyC83 15:58, 15 September 2006 (UTC) ::How about helping me with a storm that does deserve an article before preparing one for a storm that doesn't yet? :P – Chacor 16:00, 15 September 2006 (UTC) :::That can be done too. CrazyC83 16:11, 15 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Looks like the models have suddenly shifted to a fishspinner consensus. No article needed (until TCR at least) -Runningonbrains 18:01, 15 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Still too far out to be sure, but it will be at least a week before it needs an article anyways. Lane will need it much sooner. --Holderca1 18:10, 15 September 2006 (UTC) It appears to be intensifying. It appears to be forming an eye. --Holderca1 20:14, 15 September 2006 (UTC) :Nevermind about the eye, was looking at the wrong radar. --Holderca1 20:27, 15 September 2006 (UTC) ::NHC says it is almost a hurricane but it looks like the plywood will stay put: "NO MODEL BRINGS HELENE PAST 60W LONGITUDE IN FIVE DAYS IN THE LATEST MORNING RUN...AND IN FACT...MOST OF THEM TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD." ::Yay, fishie! Maybe this one will be fun to watch. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 22:23, 15 September 2006 (UTC) Hurricane Helene NRL has Helene now at 65 kt, thus a hurricane. However we should wait for the next advisory. -- WmE 13:08, 16 September 2006 (UTC) :Confirmed by NHC. --Holderca1 15:01, 16 September 2006 (UTC) ::Yep. Now the question is with the ridge: will it rebuild or not? CrazyC83 15:46, 16 September 2006 (UTC) Interestingly, the 00z models take Helene westward instead of recurving. The 00z GFDL and the 18z NOGAPS have not come out yet, so it will be interesting to see what they do. --'Coredesat' talk! 01:05, 17 September 2006 (UTC) :Helene looks fairly impressive now. It's slightly-lopsided shape and half-filled eye kind of remind me of Ophelia...far future track is still very uncertain. bob rulz 11:08, 17 September 2006 (UTC) 90 knots, forecast to peak as a 100-kt major hurricane before it starts to recurve and weaken. – Chacor 14:47, 17 September 2006 (UTC) :This is surely allowing the ACE to catch up combined with Gordon's Epsilon-esque tenacity... —The preceding unsigned comment was added by CrazyC83 (talk • ) }. Ahh, I see Dr. Avila has not lost the human touch: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/171436.shtml -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 16:51, 17 September 2006 (UTC) :SSD now T5.5/5.5 (102kt) - could very well be a major hurricane at 11pm. CrazyC83 00:14, 18 September 2006 (UTC) ::Satellite presentation is MUCH better than 4 hours ago. Helene's really getting her stuff together. Would not surprise me in the least. -Runningonbrains 00:55, 18 September 2006 (UTC) :::Also, models are gettting a little iffy about recurvature. This will definately be one to watch. -Runningonbrains 00:57, 18 September 2006 (UTC) Major Hurricane Helene 100kt on NRL and the models, Dvorak T#s of 5.5 (102kt). -- RattleMan 01:41, 18 September 2006 (UTC) :She's on a roll...looking at a repeat of her 1988 conquest? CrazyC83 01:41, 18 September 2006 (UTC) ::Not forecast to reach Cat 4 strength yet. I'm a little scared that the models are no longer guaranteeing recurvature, though. —Cuiviénen 02:48, 18 September 2006 (UTC) 11pm advisory confirms, the second major of the season. -- RattleMan 02:41, 18 September 2006 (UTC) :The forecast track took a significant jog to the west at days 4 and 5, and only half the models are currently forecasting recurvature (if I understand the discussions correctly). I'm getting consistently more worried that this won't recurve. bob rulz 05:35, 18 September 2006 (UTC) ::It all hinges on that trough. If the trough misses the storm, then we could have a problem. We've gotten lucky at least twice this year, can we get lucky a third time? I've developed a theory: NHC said that an upper level low could jog Helene to the north in the way of the trough. I personally think that the stronger it gets, the less likely it is to be tugged north by the low when it moves out. The stronger the storm, the more it has the ability to influence its own environment. We'll see, but that's my theory. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 13:43, 18 September 2006 (UTC) :::Meanwhile, it looks as though Helene is getting stronger. 110kt (954mb) now on NRL. Perhaps even a Cat. 4 at the next NHC advisory? Pobbie Rarr 13:52, 18 September 2006 (UTC) ::::Or not. "......THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD AND IS NOW SHOWING RECURVATURE EAST OF 60W LONGITUDE." Ah ha! There is mercy up there after all, Jesùs! The US gets lucky once again. Is it possible that we could have a season with no retired names? That hasn't happened since 1997. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 21:06, 18 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Wind speed is down but the wind field has expanded somewhat. Given how fickle the models have beeen so far with Helene, I wouldn't be confident of anything until the northward turn begins. Also, Bermuda is certainly not out of the woods. Pobbie Rarr 21:14, 18 September 2006 (UTC) ::::::The forecaster says the models are now all in agreement and he has much more confidence in this forecast. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 21:17, 18 September 2006 (UTC) No retired names, Eric? Bold prediction, especially since it's only September. ;) [[User:Cyclone1|''→Cycl]][[User talk:Cyclone1|one1]]→'' 00:52, 20 September 2006 (UTC) That is a bold prediction, but I too am beginning to see any storms with any legitimate chance of joining the Hurricane Hall of Fame. Hope you all like the sports analogy I used to change things up. I was beginning to get tired of the word retire. guitarhero777777 04:16, 20 September 2006 (UTC) :It would be September 20 and the storms this year have killed fewer than 20 people. I also see no killers looming on the horizon, everything has turned out to sea. Have their been late-season retirees? Yes, of course but most of them were in seasons that had a retiree in the previous months, meaning that the storms were forming closer to shore but just hadn't had the conditions to get that strong. The ones this year have stayed away from shore for the most part and have had good conditions that they failed to take advantage of. Helene had ideal conditions but couldn't get beyond a Cat 3. And given how inactive this September has been, it's hard for me to believe that October will be any different. I'm not ruling it out by any means; crazier things have happened in the Atlantic. But I'm just noting the almost unbelievable quiet we've been having and that this year's storms seem to be trending out to sea. :By the way, I had a Hurricane Hall of Fame before my hard drive crashed. I'm hoping a computer geek at my dad's office can get the data off. -- §Hurricane RIC§ '' '' 22:34, 20 September 2006 (UTC) It's finished. --Mark J 14:29, 24 September 2006 (UTC) :No article on Helene? Memicho 01:01, 25 September 2006 (UTC) ::Nope. Not enough info, unless someone wants to make it. Hurricanehink (talk) 01:03, 25 September 2006 (UTC) :::Strange, Debby has less info, don't you think? I think helene is worth more than debby even if it didn't do any damage.Memicho 01:39, 25 September 2006 (UTC) ::::True, but Debby was written weeks after the storm dissipated, and I was the only one actually willing to make the article. Everyone else wanted to wait for the TCR. For Helene, someone will probably make it eventually, but they'll have to do it under their own free will. Hurricanehink (talk) 01:42, 25 September 2006 (UTC) :::::Well, if things are slow for a while, we could get the TCR early, but I doubt it. I think it'd be a better idea to hold off on writing an article until then unless there's any significant impact as an extratropical cyclone. Writing an article now is probably not a good idea, since there is little to no info outside of storm history. --'Coredesat' talk! 01:45, 25 September 2006 (UTC) And all of a sudden, it's back on NRL for some reason. --'Coredesat' talk! 02:54, 25 September 2006 (UTC) :It looks fully extrratropical though. -- WmE 19:06, 25 September 2006 (UTC)